PhD Topic/Title: UNSEEN, most extreme, severe convective storms


Severe convective storms are thunderstorms producing heavy rain (leading to flash floods), large hail, strong wind gusts and/or tornadoes. These hazards represent a significant meteorological risk over the UK, especially when they combine – whether in time, space or hazard type – with enhanced, cascading impacts. This so-called ‘compound event’ perspective is an important component of Henry’s project.

An obvious question is how the risk posed by severe convective storms might change in our warming climate. However, we should not overlook another important question: what is the risk of events more severe than what we have observed in the past, yet plausible in the current climate? Henry’s project will tackle this question by applying the UNSEEN method to severe convective storms. Further aspirations include considering future climate change, investigating links between severe convective storms and large-scale atmospheric variations, and applying the methods to other, understudied regions of the globe.