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Preview of the infographics created by Dr Richard Hodgkins.

Good COP, bad COP: How decisions made at COP26 could impact weather and temperatures in the East Midlands

New infographics created by a Loughborough University physical geographer explore how decisions made at the upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP) may impact weather and temperatures experienced in the East Midlands.

COP26 logo for the LU PR campaign

Dr Richard Hodgkins, who has also recorded two informative videos that explain what COP26 is and why people should care, hopes the graphics will “help people understand how global climate trends are likely to be experienced in the East Midlands during different seasons, and how these could follow from successful or unsuccessful COP negotiations”.

The free infographics can be downloaded by clicking here: cop-infographic.jpg. For a version aimed at young people (10 years+), click here: young-infographic.jpg.‌‌ Dr Hodgkins breaks down the information on the graphics below. ‌‌

Winter in the East Midlands

“Bad COP corresponds to a no progress scenario at COP26: carbon emissions continue to grow without significant mitigation. Good COP reflects a successful COP26, leading to rapid carbon emissions reductions in line with the COP21 Paris agreement, limiting the global average temperature increase to 1.6C by 2100”, Dr Hodgkins explains.

“Under a Bad COP scenario, winters in the East Midlands by the end of the century are projected to be 4.1C warmer and 23% wetter than the 1981–2000 average. This increases the probability of severe storms and flooding, with associated disruption and damage for communities and businesses.

“Under a Good COP scenario, winters in the East Midlands by the end of the century are instead projected to be 1.3C warmer and 10% wetter than the 1981–2000 average. This limits the probability of increased storms and flooding, reducing the impacts of disruption and damage.

Temperatures for winter, as outlined by Dr Hodgkins. 

The projections are for northern Leicestershire, based on the Hadley Centre Met Office UK Climate Projections 2018, and are expressed as changes compared to the 1981–2000 average (explained here). 

Summer in the East Midlands

“Under a Bad COP scenario, summers in the East Midlands by the end of the century are projected to be 6.4C warmer and 43% drier than the 1981–2000 average”, says Dr Hodgkins.

“This increases the probability of heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, with associated disruption and damage for communities and businesses.”

 Temperature predictions for summer by Dr Hodgkins. The projections are for northern Leicestershire, based on the Hadley Centre Met Office UK Climate Projections 2018, and are expressed as changes compared to the 1981–2000 average (explained here). 

He continued: “Under a Good COP scenario, summers in the East Midlands by the end of the century are instead projected to be 2.3C warmer and 26% drier than the 1981–2000 average.

“This limits the probability of increased heatwaves, droughts and wildfires, reducing the impacts of disruption and damage.”

Dr Hodgkins' COP26 explainer videos can be viewed below:‌


More on Loughborough University's COP26 PR campaign can be found here

Notes for editors

Press release reference number: 21/224

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