Conditional Inference in Undergraduates

Abstract: Conditional inference – inference from statements of the form ‘if A then B’ – has long been studied in cognitive psychology. It has been studied only a little in mathematics education, despite its relevance for understanding and constructing mathematical arguments. In this talk, I will describe three studies of conditional inference in mathematics students. Study 1 used comparative judgement to score mathematical conditionals for believability, then investigated whether undergraduates accept more inferences from more believable conditionals. Study 2 investigated patterns of inference across mathematical, abstract and everyday content.  For both of these studies, cluster analyses revealed educationally relevant individual differences.  I will discuss implications for theoretical understanding of reasoning development, and for teaching and learning.