Dr Afzal Ashraf, a Visiting Fellow at Loughborough University and former RAF officer, says discussions at the Warsaw Security Forum revealed growing anxiety about a possible Russian attack on NATO countries.
In a new analysis, he draws parallels with the events leading to the First World War, when European governments increased military preparations amid fears that conflict was inevitable.
Dr Ashraf says that while Russia poses a genuine security threat, European leaders must distinguish between its ambitions, military capabilities and actual intentions.
He highlights conflicting intelligence assessments, with some military commanders warning Russia could attack NATO by 2029, while Danish intelligence considers a full-scale invasion unlikely.
He also questions whether Russia, having struggled to achieve its objectives in Ukraine after more than four years of fighting, currently possesses the capability to mount a major offensive against NATO.
The financial consequences of European rearmament are another major concern, says Dr Ashraf.
European military spending reached a record $563 billion last year, yet significant gaps remain in personnel, equipment, ammunition and air defence.
He added that further increases could put pressure on public services and undermine economic stability.
Dr Afzal Ashraf is a Visiting Fellow at Loughborough University. He served for 30 years in the Royal Air Force and has held national security and intelligence roles.
ENDS