Simulating 2D hydrodynamics at 30m resolution for the entire planet

Speech Title:

Simulating 2D hydrodynamics at 30m resolution for the entire planet 

Abstract:

Over the last fifteen years, hydrodynamic modelling has, like so many branches of hydrology, made the leap from local to global scales.  Where once we may have applied our models to single river reaches a few 10s of kilometres in length, we can now build and execute models at ~30m spatial resolution over the entire terrestrial land surface.  In turn, this has allowed us to address scientific and practical questions that were hitherto impossible to answer.  For example, global inundation modelling can help us understand and quantify large scale hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and many questions in flood risk management, for example decisions about future government spending on flood defences, analysing the solvency of flood insurance portfolios under extreme conditions, or determining climate change impacts, require predictions of flood risk at national, continental, or even global scales.

This talk therefore discusses the scientific developments that were needed to make this local-to-global transition possible and outlines what the latest generation of global inundation models now can (and cannot) do.  Finally, the talk looks at current limits to inundation modelling in terms of boundary conditions, flood defence data and model validation and considers the prospects for further improvements in model skill using the data from recently launched and forthcoming satellite missions such as SWOT and NISAR.

Biographies:

Paul Bates is Professor of Hydrology at the University of Bristol where he specialises in the science of flooding and also Chair of the flood risk analytics firm Fathom (www.fathom.global).  He develops new numerical solutions to the Shallow Water equations and combines these with satellite and airborne data to advance our fundamental understanding of flood dynamics and reduce threats to life and economic losses worldwide.  His work is used by multiple researchers, NGOs, multi-national companies and insurers to manage flood hazard and risk.
Previously, he was Director of the Cabot Institute and Head of the School of Geographical Sciences at Bristol and has spent sabbatical periods at Laboratoire National d’Hydraulique et Environnment in Paris, the EU Joint Research Centre, Princeton University and the NASA Jet Propulsion Lab at CALTECH.

He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of London and of the American Geophysical Union, a double winner of the Lloyd's of London Science of Risk prize and in 2019 was made a Commander of the British Empire for services to flood risk management.  He was awarded the John Dalton medal by the European Union of Geosciences in 2024 and the Ven Te Chow award by the American Society of Civil Engineers in 2025.