Are we ready for the storms ahead?

Abstract

The intensification of extreme precipitation in a warming climate has been shown in observations and climate models to follow approximately theoretical Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. However, larger changes have been indicated in events of short-duration which frequently trigger flash floods or landslides, causing loss of life. At the same time heatwaves and associated droughts and water shortages are increasing in frequency. Together these provide cascading impacts on water quality, agricultural production and other societal necessities. Continental-scale convection-permitting climate models (CPCMs) and new observational datasets provide the state-of-the-art in understanding future changes to extreme weather (rainfall, wind, hail, lightning) and their compounding effects with global warming. But climate models are underestimating the rate of change of warming in the real world, and the increase in associated extreme weather events due to their poor representation of dynamical circulation changes and feedbacks from land, ocean and ice dynamics. It will be argued that a shift in focus is needed from our reliance on climate models towards embedding different lines of evidence in a transdisciplinary storylines approach. Ultimately we must work together across disciplines to address these rapid changes and co-create actionable information that can be quickly embedded into policy and practice, using this approach to improve both early warning systems and projections of extreme weather events for climate adaptation.

Bio

Professor Hayley J. Fowler is Professor of Climate Change Impacts and Director of the Centre of Climate and Environmental Resilience at Newcastle University. Her research advances understanding of changing weather and precipitation extremes, developing high-resolution climate projections to inform adaptation strategies. She is a member of the UK Climate Change Committee’s Adaptation Committee and has advised the UK Government on climate resilience through the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Science Expert Group. An AGU Fellow and recipient of the 2024 European Geosciences Union Sergey Soloviev Medal, Fowler is internationally recognised for pioneering downscaling techniques that bridge climate modelling and real-world applications. She contributed to the IPCC WGI Sixth Assessment Report and formerly served as President of the British Hydrological Society. Passionate about transdisciplinary collaboration and public engagement, she regularly delivers lectures to inspire collective action on the climate crisis.