In a new paper, Dr Duncan Depledge, reveals how, even at a time of heightened global tensions, the MoD is attempting to navigate the need to embed climate and energy transition risks into its planning, without impacting military operations.
These efforts were stepped-up following the landmark Nugee Review in 2020.
“Low-carbon warfare is about how militaries respond to major shifts in the global climate and energy landscape that make it more risky to remain tethered to fossil fuels”, said Dr Depledge, of Loughborough University.
The subsequent creation of a new Climate Change and Environment Directorate within the MOD, kicked off a renewed effort to understand the climate and energy transition risks facing the UK’s armed forces.
Each of the services – Army, Royal Navy, Royal Air Force, and Strategic Command – was also tasked with drawing up their own climate and energy strategies.
Institutional reforms, such as transforming the Defence Fuels Authority into the Defence Operational Energy Authority, have supported this work.
Senior champions were appointed across commands to drive the agenda, while trials and experiments showcased novel ideas for low-carbon capabilities – from RAF flights using sustainable aviation fuels to Army tests of hybrid and electric vehicles.
Alongside this, the MoD has been looking at tracking energy use, emissions, and fuel dependencies to build the knowledge needed for setting measurable targets.
These experiments are crucial, according to Dr Depledge.
He said: “Demonstrations of low-carbon technologies give military personnel something they can see and test – a ‘visitable future’ that makes change feel possible. Without that, visions of low-carbon warfare risk remaining abstract.”
Despite progress, Dr Depledge said that the vision of low-carbon warfare remains far from mainstream inside the MoD.
The new research identifies major barriers:
- Climate and energy expertise is still largely siloed within small teams within the MoD.
- Risks associated with shifts in the climate and energy landscape are yet to be break into the mainstream of public debate about defence.
- Short-term geopolitical and financial pressures continue to drive the MoD towards investment of the limited resource available into tried and tested ‘high carbon’ capabilities.
Dr Depledge argues that militaries must see energy not as a guaranteed commodity but as a capability to be generated in diverse ways.
Without change, militaries risk being locked into outdated technologies even as global energy systems shift.
“The futures defence organisations choose to invest in now will affect how well prepared they are to cope with the climate and energy transition risks ahead,” said Dr Depledge.
To investigate these issues, Dr Depledge and his team conducted a qualitative analysis of 44 official MoD documents published between 2018 and 2024, alongside 48 interviews with serving and retired MoD officials and military personnel.
Interviews were anonymised, and sampling was carried out using a ‘snowballing’ method to capture a wide range of perspectives across the MoD’s federated structure.
Triangulating these sources allowed the research to trace how visions of low-carbon warfare were being articulated, embedded and resisted.
The analysis also used text-mining software to identify recurring concepts and cross-reference them with key terms such as “net zero,” “sustainability” and “energy.”
While recognising the limitations of sample bias, Dr Depledge concludes that visions of low-carbon warfare are emerging, although they face significant institutional resistance.
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