“Statistics like global mean temperature are useful for policymakers, but they don’t reflect what people actually feel on the ground.
“Temperature projections from global climate models typically represent rural or agricultural landscapes, averaged over tens to hundreds of square kilometres. They fail to capture the extreme heat many urban residents experience.
“Cities are climate risk hot-spots due to their dense populations, concentration of infrastructure, and vulnerability to extreme weather. They also create their own microclimates, shaped by unique layouts, building materials, artificial heat sources, green spaces, and water features. These variations mean that day-to-day temperatures can differ markedly within a single city, making averages poor indicators of real risk.
“We also spend most of our time indoors, so to understand how climate change affects human health, we must simulate indoor conditions. This includes factors like humidity, ventilation, radiant heat from surfaces, and even the metabolic rate and clothing of occupants.
“Humidity is increasingly critical because high temperatures combined with high humidity can quickly become lethal. For instance, 38°C at 30% relative humidity is dangerous—but at 80% humidity, it can be deadly. High humidity impairs the body’s ability to cool through sweating.
“Indoor temperatures tend to track outdoor conditions unless buildings are air-conditioned. Globally, over a billion people live without access to cooling, so without adaptation, many could face dangerously hot and humid conditions.
“And this risk is growing. By 2050, 68% of the world’s population is expected to live in urban areas, meaning more people could be exposed to these intensified urban heat conditions.
“Whether the planet warms by 1.5°C or 4°C, the experience of that warming will vary widely depending on where and how people live. Even the best climate models likely underestimate the severity of future urban heat risk.”
ENDS
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