Latest news from Loughborough University
| 26 June 2007 | PR 07/89 |
British Crime Survey misleads public by omitting three million crimes, say Loughborough researchers
The British Crime Survey is omitting three million crimes and therefore misleading the public as to the true volume of crime, according to a report by two Loughborough experts, published today by independent think-tank Civitas.
The report, ‘Crime in England and Wales: More Violence and More Chronic Victims’, is written by Graham Farrell, professor of criminology at Loughborough University, and Ken Pease, visiting professor at Loughborough and former acting head of the Police Research Group at the Home Office.
It reveals that, ever since its inception in 1981, the British Crime Survey (BCS) has omitted many crimes committed against people who have been repeat victims. If people are victimised in the same way by the same perpetrators more than five times in a year, the number of crimes is recorded as five. The justification for this was ‘to avoid extreme cases distorting the rates’. But as Farrell and Pease point out, if the people who say they suffered ten incidents really did, capping the series at five distorts the rate.
By recalculating the figures without the arbitrary ‘If (number greater than 5) = 5’ rule, Farrell and Pease have revealed that there are over three million crimes omitted from the BCS as it is now published.
In their report the authors state:
“In its most recent published sweep, BCS estimated an annual total of some 6.8 million ‘household’ crimes (covering burglary; theft in a dwelling; other household theft; thefts of and from vehicles; bicycle theft; and vandalism to household property and vehicles). It also estimated some 4.1 million ‘personal’ crimes (which covers assault, sexual offences, robbery, theft from the person, and other personal theft).
“Our re-analysis reveals that, if we believe what the respondents tell us, there would be 7.8 million household offences and 6.3 million personal crimes. Thus, removing the arbitrary five offence limit, over three million extra offences come to light… Household crime is increased by 15% and personal crime by a staggering 52%. As the sum of personal and household crimes, total crime would have been understated by 29%.”
The increase in the number of crimes is not evenly spread across all types of crime. For example, theft of vehicles is not increased at all, but levels of vandalism are almost a quarter more than reported, and there are 20 per cent more burglaries. Violent crime of all types increases by 83 per cent. Violence perpetrated by an acquaintance increases by 156 per cent and domestic violence by 140 per cent. ‘Stranger’ violence increases by 24 per cent. As Farrell and Pease say, these are not minor differences.
Farrell and Pease describe this arbitrary exclusion of certain crimes as ‘the worm in the BCS bud’ that has led to ‘a blighted bloom ever since’. Its effect on data collection is so serious that crime control, police training and criminal justice action are now substantially misdirected.
– Ends –
For all media enquiries contact:
- Hannah Baldwin, Head of PR, Loughborough
University,
T: 01509 222239, E: H.E.Baldwin@lboro.ac.uk
- Robert Whelan, Civitas, T: 020 7799 6677, M: 07732 674476
Notes for editors:
Crime in England and Wales in thousands (BCS 2005-6,
crimes in the last 12 months)
| Crime category | ‘Official’ Crime Count (000’s) | Actual Crime Count (000’s) | % Difference when all series crimes included |
|
All vehicle thefts Other theft |
733 315 1731 439 576 1196 |
877 342 1779 446 584 1213 |
19.7 8.7 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 |
| VIOLENCE Common assault Wounding Robbery |
1490 |
2956 |
98.4 |
All BCS violence* Domestic violence Acquaintance Stranger Mugging |
|
|
|
| ALL HOUSEHOLD CRIME ALL PERSONAL CRIME |
6792 4120 |
7838 6250 |
15.4 51.7 |
* All BCS Violence includes common assault, wounding, robbery and snatch theft.