Controlling the spread of coronavirus without shutting down society
Taking no action to curb the spread of COVID-19 would lead to an uncontrolled outbreak but completely isolating people would have a devasting impact on the economy.
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
This is the dilemma currently faced by the UK Government and international administrations across the world.
“The Government is facing a choice,” says Dr Robertson.
“Can we control the spread of Coronavirus, and if so, how?
“The UK’s current policy is not to restrict social gatherings.
“So, mainly we are in business as usual – people interact almost normally, going to large events
“The virus is spreading, and people who catch it spread to others.
“Without action, this can lead to uncontrolled spread.
“This completely overwhelms the capacity of the national health service, and the death rate goes up as a result, as people who could have been treated are not treated.
“Alternatively, we can completely isolate people.
“They don’t interact, there is a terrific social cost, and the spread of the virus takes a very long time.
“So, we need to optimize the spread of the virus – controlling the spread and matching it to national health service capacity.”
Social distancing – a tenet of public health response – is one of the talked about options for responding to the coronavirus outbreak.
At its heart is the idea that there is a Goldilocks zone for keeping people apart – not to close, and not too far – which will allow for optimal control of the spread of the virus.
Close Contact, where the population is infected very rapidly. This is not A Good Thing – the national health service is overwhelmed, and the death rate goes up as a result
Extreme Distancing, where the viral spread takes too long. This is not A Good Thing – the social and economic costs are huge
Optimal Distancing, where the spread is controlled and the human, social, and economic costs are optimized. This is A Good Thing. It is also very tricky to get right.
Loughborough University is equipped with a live in-house broadcast unit via the Globelynx network. To arrange an interview with one of our experts please contact the press office on 01509 223491. Bookings can be made online via www.globelynx.com
Loughborough is one of the country’s leading universities, with an international reputation for research that matters, excellence in teaching, strong links with industry, and unrivalled achievement in sport and its underpinning academic disciplines.
It has been awarded five stars in the independent QS Stars university rating scheme, named the best university in the world for sports-related subjects in the 2019 QS World University Rankings, University of the Year by The Times and Sunday Times University Guide 2019 and top in the country for its student experience in the 2018 THE Student Experience Survey.
Loughborough is in the top 10 of every national league table, being ranked 4th in the Guardian University League Table 2020, 5th in the Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2019 and 8th in The UK Complete University Guide 2020.
Loughborough is consistently ranked in the top twenty of UK universities in the Times Higher Education’s ‘table of tables’ and is in the top 10 in England for research intensity. In recognition of its contribution to the sector, Loughborough has been awarded seven Queen's Anniversary Prizes.
The Loughborough University London campus is based on the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and offers postgraduate and executive-level education, as well as research and enterprise opportunities. It is home to influential thought leaders, pioneering researchers and creative innovators who provide students with the highest quality of teaching and the very latest in modern thinking.
Taking no action to curb the spread of COVID-19 would lead to an uncontrolled outbreak but completely isolating people would have a devasting impact on the economy.
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
This is the dilemma currently faced by the UK Government and international administrations across the world.
“The Government is facing a choice,” says Dr Robertson.
“Can we control the spread of Coronavirus, and if so, how?
“The UK’s current policy is not to restrict social gatherings.
“So, mainly we are in business as usual – people interact almost normally, going to large events
“The virus is spreading, and people who catch it spread to others.
“Without action, this can lead to uncontrolled spread.
“This completely overwhelms the capacity of the national health service, and the death rate goes up as a result, as people who could have been treated are not treated.
“Alternatively, we can completely isolate people.
“They don’t interact, there is a terrific social cost, and the spread of the virus takes a very long time.
“So, we need to optimize the spread of the virus – controlling the spread and matching it to national health service capacity.”
Social distancing – a tenet of public health response – is one of the talked about options for responding to the coronavirus outbreak.
At its heart is the idea that there is a Goldilocks zone for keeping people apart – not to close, and not too far – which will allow for optimal control of the spread of the virus.
Close Contact, where the population is infected very rapidly. This is not A Good Thing – the national health service is overwhelmed, and the death rate goes up as a result
Extreme Distancing, where the viral spread takes too long. This is not A Good Thing – the social and economic costs are huge
Optimal Distancing, where the spread is controlled and the human, social, and economic costs are optimized. This is A Good Thing. It is also very tricky to get right.
Loughborough University is equipped with a live in-house broadcast unit via the Globelynx network. To arrange an interview with one of our experts please contact the press office on 01509 223491. Bookings can be made online via www.globelynx.com
Loughborough is one of the country’s leading universities, with an international reputation for research that matters, excellence in teaching, strong links with industry, and unrivalled achievement in sport and its underpinning academic disciplines.
It has been awarded five stars in the independent QS Stars university rating scheme, named the best university in the world for sports-related subjects in the 2019 QS World University Rankings, University of the Year by The Times and Sunday Times University Guide 2019 and top in the country for its student experience in the 2018 THE Student Experience Survey.
Loughborough is in the top 10 of every national league table, being ranked 4th in the Guardian University League Table 2020, 5th in the Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2019 and 8th in The UK Complete University Guide 2020.
Loughborough is consistently ranked in the top twenty of UK universities in the Times Higher Education’s ‘table of tables’ and is in the top 10 in England for research intensity. In recognition of its contribution to the sector, Loughborough has been awarded seven Queen's Anniversary Prizes.
The Loughborough University London campus is based on the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and offers postgraduate and executive-level education, as well as research and enterprise opportunities. It is home to influential thought leaders, pioneering researchers and creative innovators who provide students with the highest quality of teaching and the very latest in modern thinking.
