Risk assessment for enhanced service provision projects

Project 2 - Reducing risks in custody through simulated process modelling

The UK police force is the primary law enforcement organisation in the country and is charged with upholding the law and detaining those who break it. Predictive policing is the use of a combination of historical data and statistical and analytical methods to develop a forecast of crime rates. Utilising predictive methods can help police better distribute resources, implement more effective crime prevention methods and respond quicker to emergencies. Police custody is an important part of the police procedure as every person arrested is held while the initial investigation is undertaken so interviews can be conducted and any physical evidence can be collected.

One of the key aims of this project is to understand and build an accurate simulation model of police custody that can forecast the number of detainees that will be in police custody during a specified time period. This will also involve an increased awareness of forecasting techniques and practical implementation. With this forecast, various management methods can then be considered so the resources in police custody (particularly cell occupancy and staffing) can be better arranged. Consequently, another objective of this project is to increase knowledge of the current capacity management methods that are being used, this will be instructive when considering which ones are appropriate for police custody.