Professor Clive W J Granger
Public Orator, Professor Terence Mills, presented the Honorary Graduand at the Degree Congregation held on the afternoon of Friday 12 July 2002.
Clive Granger was born in Swansea,
but completed his high school education at West Bridgford Grammar School,
some 12 miles north of Loughborough on the southern outskirts of Nottingham.
He then went to Nottingham University, becoming one of the initial intake
into the first-ever joint degree in economics and mathematics. On graduating
in 1955, Clive stayed on at Nottingham, becoming a lecturer in statistics
in the Mathematics Department in 1956, publishing his first academic paper,
A statistical model for sunspot activity, in the Astrophysical
Journal in 1957, and obtaining a Ph.D. in statistics in 1959.
In the early 1960s Clive obtained a
Harkness Fellowship and visited Princeton, working on spectral techniques
with such famous scholars as John Tukey and Oscar Morgenstern. Although
he came back to Nottingham to become a Professor of Economics and Statistics,
this visit to the United States had whetted his appetite for life in an
American university. Clive eventually returned in 1974 to a professorship
in the Economics Department at the University of California at San Diego,
where he has remained and has been instrumental in building up the econometrics
section to become one of the finest in the world.
From that early visit to Princeton,
Clive Granger has been one of the most influential scholars in time series
econometrics. His writings encompass all of the major developments over
the last 40 years, and he is personally responsible for some of the most
exciting ideas and methods of analysis that have occurred during this
time. Indeed, it is now virtually impossible to do empirical work in time
series econometrics without using some of his methods or being influenced
by his ideas. I am thinking here particularly of the concepts of Granger-causality
and cointegration, which our final year students studying econometrics
now employ as a matter of course in their project work. However, his research
on spurious regression, long memory, and all aspects of forecasting have
also had a profound and lasting influence. Most scholars would deem it
the accomplishment of a lifetime if their work were to have the impact
of a single one of these contributions. To have had repeated instances
of such extraordinarily influential research is surely testimony to Clive
Grangers special talent as a researcher and writer.
One of the most defining characteristics
of Clives work is his concern for the empirical relevance of his
ideas. Another hallmark is the accessibility of his work, which stems
from his unusually rich capacity to write highly readable papers and books,
many of which have gone on to become citation classics. These successes
in communication show us the vital role that good writing plays in the
transmission of scientific knowledge. To me, it is no coincidence that
the much improved performance of the Bank of England and the Treasury
in monitoring and forecasting the U.K. economy has come about since Clives
ideas and research techniques have been promulgated by his many disciples
to recent generations of economics graduates, for it is they who form
the research teams in these organisations.
Clive Grangers research has been an inspiration to all time series econometricians, and has been recognised internationally with many awards. Currently he is President of the Western Economic Association and has just become a Distiguished Fellow of the American Economic Association.
It is thus with great pleasure and honour, Chancellor, that I present Clive Granger to you and the University for the Degree of Doctor of Science, honoris causa.
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