Loughborough University
Leicestershire, UK
LE11 3TU
+44 (0)1509 222222
Loughborough University

Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology (CREST)

Networks & Systems

High-resolution Demand Modelling

Evaluating the impact of low-carbon technologies on low-voltage distribution networks requires the detailed simulation of domestic electricity demand at high-resolution. To this end, the Networks and Systems Group has developed a high-resolution stochastic model of domestic electricity demand.  The model produces one-minute resolution demand data, disaggregated by end-use and appliance, using a bottom-up modelling approach based on patterns of active occupancy and daily activity profiles derived from time-use survey data.

The model has been validated and can be used to simulate demand of aggregations of dwellings such that dwelling diversity is duly represented and end-use demand appropriately correlated. The bottom-up development of the model allows changes in appliances and their usage patterns to be represented, allowing quantification of the impact of changes in technology, for example the introduction of more efficient technologies, as well as the impact of demand response, in terms of changes in the timing of occupant activities.

The demand model has been extended to include an integrated model of domestic photovoltaic system output which is constructed to appropriately represent the correlated impact of irradiance on both PV output and lighting demand. Our current research is now focussed on extending the model further to include thermal demand modelling.

The model has been developed as a Microsoft Excel work book and has been made available for free via the following links: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/5786 https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/7773

Examples of our publications in this area include:

Richardson, IW, Thomson, M, Infield, D, Clifford, C (2010) Domestic electricity use: A high-resolution energy demand modelEnergy and Buildings, 42(10), pp.1878-1887, ISSN: 0378-7788. DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2010.05.023. Available here: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/6997

Richardson, I and Thomson, M (2012) Integrated simulation of photovoltaic micro-generation and domestic electricity demand: a one-minute resolution open-source model, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A: Journal of Power and Energy, -, DOI: 10.1177/0957650912454989